Netflix says cash-flow positive after 2021, no more external financing

Netflix talked about Tuesday it plans to be cash-float fair this yr and cash-float sure yearly after 2021, and must easy now no longer want exterior financing to fund its operations, ending a decade-long pattern and vindicating merchants who have plowed cash into the corporate despite its cash-burning systems.

Netflix also talked about this may per chance abet in mind part buybacks, a note it hasn’t done since 2011 — the closing time the corporate became once cash-float sure. The announcement came as part of Netflix’s earnings announcement, where the corporate also launched EPS of $1.19 on revenues of $6.64 billion for the fourth quarter, and 203.66 million world subscribers, up from 26 million on the dwell of 2011. Shares were up about 10% on the news.

For the previous 10 years, Netflix has upended the media industrial by taking a soar of religion. It has spent billions of bucks on licensed and popular utter material every yr to resolve its catalog, and along the methodology morphed staunch into a replace product for dilapidated pay-TV in thousands and thousands of households. Since 2011, Netflix has raised $15 billion in debt to support pay for this utter material. The corporate talked about it plans to pay relief its famed debt that matures in 2021 with its more than $8 billion of cash readily on hand.

Over the years, Netflix skeptics, equivalent to Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, have pointed out that Netflix’s increasing debt load must easy be relating for merchants as utter material spending ballooned and the corporate burned extra cash.

“Netflix has burned extra cash yearly since 2013,” Pachter urged CNBC in June 2018. “What happens after they must abet increasing their spending and they’ve $10 billion of debt? Other folks are going to originate asking, ‘can this company pay us relief?’ If that happens, their lending charge will spike. If Netflix needs to resolve capital, they may be able to difficulty stock. And that’s the reason when merchants will procure spooked.”

Nonetheless that hasn’t took place. The worth of popular programming hasn’t doomed the corporate. And Tuesday’s announcement suggests it may per chance per chance well per chance per chance no longer. Within the meantime, as Netflix has grown, the replace of U.S. households with dilapidated pay TV has dropped from a peak of 100 million in 2012 to about 75 million these days. Media executives are now planning for an world where that resolve falls to between 50 million and 60 million in 5 years.

Netflix’s market capitalization in Jan. 2011 became once $11.5 billion. As of late, or no longer it is more than $220 billion.

Pandemic quarantines have leap-began Netflix’s return to sure cash float. With production stalled amid coronavirus shutdowns and other folks all the intention in which via the arena stuck at dwelling, Netflix added 36.57 million subscribers in 2020 while spending much less cash on utter material than fashioned. Final yr, Netflix reported sure quarterly free cash float for three consecutive quarters for the indispensable time since 2014.

The acceleration in subscribers and subsequent motion of all media firms in the direction of streaming has given CEOs Reed Hastings and Ted Sarandos self assurance that Netflix would per chance be in a position to limit churn and originate continuously making cash.

Netflix investor memoir

The unknown ask is how merchants will respond to the change in Netflix’s memoir. Whereas working a sustainable industrial with out the want for outdoors debt and part buybacks is “Industry 101,” Netflix’s stock has risen as merchants have increasingly more design to the conclusion that Netflix would procure most intriguing on that promise.

“We intend to be a noteworthy elevated and noteworthy more winning self-funding company over time,” Hastings talked about at some point soon of Netflix’s 2019 first-quarter earnings conference call. “That is the path we’re on. As we talked about within the letter, we’re dedicated to present a resolve to our cash float profile meaningfully, initiating in 2020 after which each and each yr thereafter.”

As Netflix’s days of cash burn are within the aid of it, or no longer it is that you may per chance well per chance per chance per chance additionally assume of Netflix may per chance per chance additionally wish a fresh Wall Avenue memoir to persuade merchants its future enhance fable is devoted of the corporate’s lofty valuation.

Maybe that fresh memoir may per chance be the full toppling of pay-TV with a Netflix-centered bundle of streaming products and services. The complete entertainment industrial has reorganized to prepare for such an incidence with every indispensable media company organising its absorb streaming carrier within the previous yr or so.

Then every other time or no longer it may per chance per chance also be that you may per chance well per chance per chance per chance additionally assume of rising competitors from Disney, Apple, WarnerMedia and others may per chance per chance stagnate Netflix’s subscriber enhance. Investors may per chance per chance punish Netflix for part buybacks in field of the exhaust of it for more utter material. Activist investor Daniel Loeb has pushed Disney to procure rid of its dividend to focal point more on fresh popular programming.

If Netflix is picking to exhaust extra cash for buybacks, it may per chance per chance well per chance per chance be on memoir of Hastings and Sarandos assume the corporate’s field — and ability to resolve prices at some point soon — is so strong that they’ll originate to transition the corporate staunch into a fresh, more extinct phase with out seeing a subsequent loss in worth.

Jessica Bursztynsky contributed to this document.

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